So here we are then, half time in this seemingly endless General Election campaign. What are we to make of it so far?
Last week I was fortunate enough to get tickets for a lecture by the legendary polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice. In an insightful and witty talk, he outlined how he sees the campaign developing so far. Among the key points he made were –
- Comparisons with 2019 are not particularly relevant as that General Election was won and lost on the single issue of Brexit. England, which had voted (narrowly!) to leave, bought into Boris Johnson’s promise to Get Brexit Done while remainer dominated Scotland backed the Europhile SNP.
- Social class is no longer a reliable indicator of voting intentions. Prof Curtice suggested that the typical Labour voter is now a university educated urban professional.
- A large number of seats in central Scotland are very tight Labour / SNP marginals which could go either way. It’s therefore difficult to predict how many seats the SNP will lose to Scottish Labour.
- The polls show that public support for the Conservatives nosedived in December 2021 when the Partygate scandal broke and again in September 2022 when Liz Truss crashed the economy. The Conservatives have not recovered from those disasters and were never going to win this election. It’s not that Labour are wining this election, more that the Conservatives are losing it.
That last bullet point is the one that struck me as being the most relevant. Keir Starmer is highly likely to become Prime Minister because of the unpopularity of the Conservatives and not because of anything he has said or done.
Of course, the main headlines this week have gone to Nigel Farage, who seems to be getting a disproportionately large amount of broadcast media coverage. Given that Brexit has been such a disaster, it seems strange that so many people continue to find him credible. Farage has been trying to promote himself as a future Prime Minister. Back in 2019 Jo Swinson made a similar claim before going on to actually lose her seat.
Finally, as quite a few people have pointed out on social media, Kier Starmer is rather like the extra mild option at Nandos. “No added spice. As mild as it gets.” is how the chicken chain describes it. Quite!
Take Care.
ends
Photo by Myriam Jessier on Unsplash
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